Paul and I first published this before the war in Iraq. The argument for “vigilant containment” which professors Mearsheimer and Walt made at that time looks all the more attractive in 2006 as we pass 2,400 American deaths and many thousands more wounded. If only the Bush adminsitration had listened.
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The Bush administration has done a remarkable job of redirecting the argument about war on Iraq to the question of whether or not Saddam has, or will soon get, so-called “weapons of mass destruction.” As it stands now, one side says that we have to prove Saddam has WMD before going to war (France and Russia are leading proponents of this argument), while the other, headed by the United States, argue that the burden is on Saddam to prove he does not have those weapons (Philosophy 101 taught us that it is logically impossible to disprove a negative) or the United States will invade at the head of a “coalition of the willing.”
We think that a much more important question is being ignored. It is, simply, “Assuming that Saddam does have WMD, what is the best way to make sure that he does not use them?”
The best answer to this question that we have seen comes from two professors in the January/February issue of Foreign Policy Magazine. They are John J. Mearsheimer, professor of political science at the University of Chicago and co director of the Program in International Security Policy; and Stephen M. Walt, the academic dean and professor of international affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. Walt is faculty chair of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
In an article entitled “An Unnecessary War” they argue persuasively that the safest and cheapest way to prevent Saddam from using WMD is “vigilant containment.” As they point out, Saddam’s self- interest can be used against him. “Nuclear terrorism is as dangerous for Saddam as it is for Americans, and he has no more incentive to give al Qaeda nuclear weapons than the United States has.”
We do not have space even to summarize their compelling arguments, and we refer you to the full article at the web site http://www.foreignpolicy.com . But here is a brief description of the policy they advocate: Vigilant Containment.
“It is not surprising that those who favor war with Iraq portray Saddam as an inveterate and only partly rational aggressor. They are in the business of selling a preventive war, so they must try to make remaining at peace seem unacceptably dangerous. And the best way to do that is to inflate the threat, either by exaggerating Iraq’s capabilities or by suggesting horrible things will happen if the United States does not act soon. It is equally unsurprising that advocates of war are willing to distort the historical record to make their case. As former U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson famously remarked, in politics, advocacy “must be clearer than truth.”
“In this case, however, the truth points the other way. Both logic and historical evidence suggest a policy of vigilant containment would work, both now and in the event Iraq acquires a nuclear arsenal. Why? Because the United States and its regional allies are far stronger than Iraq. And because it does not take a genius to figure out what would happen if Iraq tried to use WMD to blackmail its neighbors, expand its territory, or attack another state directly. It only takes a leader who wants to stay alive and who wants to remain in power. Throughout his lengthy and brutal career, Saddam Hussein has repeatedly shown that these two goals are absolutely paramount. That is why deterrence and containment has worked since 1991.
“If the United States is, or soon will be, at war with Iraq, Americans should understand that a compelling strategic rationale is absent. This war would be one the Bush administration chose to fight but did not have to fight. Even if such a war goes well and has positive long-range consequences, it will still have been unnecessary. And if it goes badly—whether in the form of high U.S. casualties, significant civilian deaths, a heightened risk of terrorism, or increased hatred of the United States in the Arab and Islamic world—then its architects will have even more to answer for.”
War with Iraq will be a declaration of failure.
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